Prices across South Florida are expected to stay relatively flat with modest growth in the range of 1% to 2% per year through late 2027. Inventory has started to tighten heading into the 2026 spring selling season, and mortgage rates have dipped slightly over the past six months. Neither factor is strong enough to trigger a surge, but both are keeping the market from sliding backward. The conditions point to stability, not a crash and not a boom.


What the February 2026 Data Is Showing

As of early 2026, the South Florida housing market is sending mixed but mostly steady signals. Single-family inventory across the tri-county region (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach) has dropped to around 5 months of supply. That number favors sellers slightly without creating the bidding wars of 2021 and 2022.

Single-Family Homes Are Holding Value

Median sale prices for single-family homes in Broward County rose 1.6% year over year to $620,000 in February 2026. Palm Beach County posted similar results with about 1.1% appreciation. These are not dramatic moves. They signal a market that found its floor and is holding it.

On the Discover South Florida Podcast, Larry Mastropieri shared his read on the current moment:

"This season, we're starting to see inventory come down. Prices are based on supply and demand. This is basic economics. We're starting to see inventory drop a little bit, and with that my expectation is we get a better selling season right now for sellers."

The Condo Market Tells a Different Story

Condos across South Florida are softer than single-family. Median condo prices in Broward fell 1.8% to $270,000 in February 2026. Inventory sits at 11.5 months, well above the balanced threshold. Higher HOA fees, new reserve requirements from the post-Surfside safety legislation, and special assessments are weighing on buyer appetite. Buyers exploring condos in Boca Raton or Fort Lauderdale should dig into the association's financials before making any offer.

Why Prices Are Not Dropping Despite Slower Sales

Sales volume in the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach metro is forecast to decline about 7.1% in 2026. Fewer transactions usually push prices down. That is not happening here for three reasons.

  • Homeowners who bought before 2022 have massive equity cushions. They are not forced to sell at a discount.
  • Cash buyers still represent 35% to 45% of all transactions across the tri-county area. They are less sensitive to interest rates.
  • International demand remains strong. Canadian buyers alone spent $1.9 billion on Florida properties in 2025, a 52% jump from the prior year.
  • Limited buildable land in coastal areas keeps supply structurally tight, especially for single-family homes.

Sellers who overprice their homes are sitting on the market longer. But those who list at fair market value are still moving properties within reasonable timeframes. The days of naming any price and getting multiple offers are over. The days of needing to drop 15% to sell have not arrived either.

The Interest Rate Factor

Mortgage rates currently sit around 6% to 6.5%, down from above 7% a year ago. That half-point drop expanded purchasing power for buyers and pulled some demand back into the market. Most forecasts expect rates to settle in the low-to-mid 6% range through 2026, with a possible dip below 6% by late in the year.

Larry offered a grounded take on rates during the episode:

"I don't expect interest rates to drop substantially. They have come down a little bit over the past six months, which I think is what's driving the increase in demand and drop in inventory right now."

A dramatic rate drop would ignite buyer competition and push prices higher. A rate spike would cool things further. Neither scenario is the base case. The most likely path is a slow grind with modest improvement for buyers and sellers alike.

How Insurance and Total Ownership Costs Affect Pricing

Price is only one number in the equation. In South Florida, homeowners insurance, flood coverage, property taxes, and HOA fees combine to shape what a buyer can actually afford. A home priced at $500,000 might carry $8,000 or more in annual insurance premiums. That cost directly impacts loan qualification and monthly budgets.

Buyers searching in Palm Beach County or Broward County should run the total monthly number before deciding what they can afford. Looking at list price alone is misleading down here.

The positive trend: Florida's tort reform legislation has started to stabilize the insurance market. Several carriers filed 5% to 10% rate reductions heading into 2026. At least 17 new insurers have entered the Florida homeowners market since the reforms passed. That additional competition is a good sign for monthly carrying costs going forward.

Trying to figure out what a home in South Florida will actually cost you monthly? We help buyers calculate total ownership costs, including insurance, taxes, and HOA, before they write an offer. Reach out to The Mastropieri Group at (561) 544-7000 and we will walk you through the real numbers.

What This Means if You Are Buying or Selling Right Now

The market rewards preparation and patience in 2026. It does not reward panic on either side.

For Buyers

You have more negotiating room than at any point since 2019. Inventory is available. Sellers are open to credits, repairs, and rate buydowns in many cases. Do not wait for a crash that is not supported by any current data. But also do not rush into a property without running total costs first. Homes in Delray Beach, Boynton Beach, and West Palm Beach are moving at a pace that allows time to compare, inspect, and negotiate.

For Sellers

Price it right from day one. Overpriced listings sit and go stale. Homes that hit the market at fair value are still attracting qualified buyers within 30 to 45 days. Work with a local real estate agent who understands current comps and can position your property against the competition.

Larry summed up the outlook clearly:

"Overall my expectation is things remain relatively flat, if not at small growth rates, like a 1% or 2% a year growth. I don't expect a huge move. Make your decisions based on those estimates."

Ready to Make a Move in This Market?

The 2026 market rewards people who understand the numbers and move with a plan. Whether you are buying your first home or selling a property you have held for years, The Mastropieri Group, Realtors® has closed over 2,000 transactions across Palm Beach and Broward counties. We know this market block by block. Give us a call at (561) 544-7000 and let us show you exactly where you stand.