How Are South Florida Property Taxes Expected to Change Moving Forward?

South Florida property taxes are headed for a reduction, though the exact size remains an open question in Tallahassee. The Florida House passed a resolution in February 2026 to phase out all non-school property taxes on primary residences over the next decade. That measure died in the Senate, but a special session set for April 20 will bring property tax reform back to the floor. On top of that, home values across the region have cooled sharply from pandemic highs, which means assessed values are no longer climbing at the pace that caused so much sticker shock in recent years.

The Two Forces Behind Every Florida Tax Bill

Your property tax bill is not a random number pulled from thin air. It comes from a formula with two moving parts, and understanding both of them helps you see where things are headed.

Millage Rates and the Politics Around Them

Local governments set the millage rate. That rate funds police, fire, schools, waste pickup, parks, and road maintenance. You multiply it by your assessed value (divided by 1,000) to get the tax you owe. Each city and county sets its own rate, so your bill depends heavily on where you live.

On the Discover South Florida Podcast, Larry Mastropieri was blunt about why rates rarely climb:

"The millage rate is determined by the cities. Are the cities going to increase it? They try not to. This is not something that taxpayers look fondly upon when your elected officials start increasing taxes."

Elected officials know voters punish rate hikes at the ballot box. So millage rates tend to hold steady or even dip slightly in election years. However, holding the rate flat does not guarantee a flat tax bill, because the other half of the equation has a mind of its own.

How Assessed Values Drive Your Bill Higher?

The county property appraiser sets your assessed value based on market conditions. When home prices surge, that number follows, and your tax bill rises even though nobody voted to raise anything. This is exactly what happened between 2020 and 2023 when Boca Raton and Delray Beach home values shot up by 40% to 60%.

Homesteaded properties get some protection through Florida's Save Our Homes amendment. It caps annual assessed value increases at 3% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower. Long-term owners benefit from that cap significantly. Still, new buyers pay full freight on the current market value from the day they close, which is why two neighbors in the same subdivision can carry wildly different tax bills.

Why the Runaway Tax Hikes Are Slowing Down?

The conditions that created those massive tax jumps are not repeating. Pandemic-era demand sent prices into the stratosphere, and assessed values chased them higher. But the market has leveled off considerably since then.

MIAMI Realtors projects single-family home prices in Southeast Florida to grow around 4% in 2025, with an even more modest pace expected through 2026. Compare that to the double-digit annual gains from 2021 and 2022, and the difference is stark.

Larry Mastropieri connected the market data to tax expectations on the podcast:

"I don't expect that taxes skyrocket like they have over the past five years or 15 years, frankly. I don't expect values to continue to climb at the same pace they did during the pandemic. If your values are climbing at 1% a year, then I don't think your property taxes are going up too much."

For homesteaded owners with the 3% cap already in place, the math is even more favorable. Slower appreciation combined with the existing cap means most long-term owners in West Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens should see minimal movement in their annual bills.

Inside the Fight to Cut Property Taxes in Tallahassee

The real action is happening at the state level, where Florida legislators are debating the most aggressive property tax reform in decades. Seven different proposals were filed for the 2026 session. One of them made it further than any similar bill in recent memory.

What HJR 203 Proposed

The Florida House passed HJR 203 on February 19, 2026, by a vote of 80 to 30. The bill would have increased the homestead exemption by $100,000 every year for ten years, starting in 2027. By 2037, all non-school property taxes on primary residences would be gone entirely. School district levies would stay untouched, and local governments would be barred from cutting law enforcement budgets.

For a homeowner with a $400,000 assessed value, that translates to roughly $1,000 to $1,500 in savings during year one, growing annually until the non-school portion of the bill disappears. Florida's Revenue Estimating Conference projected the full cost to local governments at $18.3 billion per year.

Where the Senate and Governor Stand

The Senate never gave HJR 203 a hearing. It died quietly in Appropriations when the regular session ended on March 13. Senate Appropriations Chairman Ed Hooper told reporters the Senate's version will not be as "generous" as the House plan. Meanwhile, Governor DeSantis sided with the Senate's cautious approach, posting that "it's better to do it right than do it quick."

A special session is now confirmed for the week of April 20, and property tax reform is on the agenda alongside the state budget and redistricting. Any constitutional amendment needs a three-fifths supermajority in both chambers before it can go to voters in November 2026. Then it faces a 60% approval threshold at the ballot, a bar that no presidential candidate in Florida has cleared in modern history.

The Most Likely Outcome for Homeowners

A full overnight wipeout of property taxes is a pipe dream. Cities and counties cannot operate without the revenue. Police departments need funding. Roads need paving. Garbage needs collecting. Pulling all of that money out at once would cripple local services in ways voters would notice immediately.

Larry zeroed in on what he thinks will actually happen:

"I think something is coming and it's going to be a reduction in property tax. The question is just how extreme. If it's something extreme, it's going to be a 10-year thing because there's no way the cities can fund themselves if we just immediately remove that. Realistically, we'll probably see an increase to 100,000 or 200,000 or 500,000 in our homestead exemption."

That prediction aligns almost perfectly with HJR 203's phased approach. Regardless of whether the final bill matches the House version or the Senate scales it back, the direction is clear: homestead exemptions are going up. The only open questions are how much, how fast, and whether voters approve it in November.

Here is what to keep in mind as the debate continues:

• Florida's current homestead exemption removes $50,000 from your assessed value for tax purposes on a primary residence.
• HJR 203 proposed raising that by $100,000 annually over a decade, eliminating non-school taxes entirely by 2037.
• Every proposal filed so far keeps school district property taxes in place for all homesteaded properties.
• The Senate is expected to introduce a more conservative alternative during the April 20 special session.
• Voter approval at 60% is required for any constitutional amendment, a historically difficult bar to clear in Florida.

What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling Right Now

Buyers need to understand that property taxes hit new owners harder than long-term residents. When you purchase a home in Palm Beach County or Broward County, the Save Our Homes cap resets. You start paying taxes on the full market value. A house that costs the current owner $4,000 annually might cost you $8,000 or more at the same address. Always ask your agent to pull the actual tax records before making an offer.

Sellers should recognize that potential tax cuts could widen the buyer pool in the coming years. Lower annual tax bills make monthly housing costs more manageable, which helps more buyers qualify for financing. Properties in cities with higher millage rates, like parts of Fort Lauderdale and Boynton Beach, would see the most dramatic impact if reforms pass.

The landscape is shifting. Staying ahead of it matters more than most people realize.

Get the Real Numbers on Any Property You Are Considering

Property taxes are one of the biggest recurring costs of owning a home in Florida, and they vary wildly from one address to the next. If you want someone to pull the records, walk you through the exemptions, and show you what a property actually costs to own each year, that is a conversation we have every single day. Reach out to The Mastropieri Group, Realtors®. Call (561) 544-7000 and tell us which property you are looking at. We will do the math with you.